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The crossover-crackout saga


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#1 mcmlvtopps

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Posted 30 October 2011 - 11:41 AM



Over the years I've had some very nice gains with cross overs, but not in the original holder. I think the main issue that will never go away is the fact that all cards are reviewed by subjective graders, thus the fly in the pie. We will forever hear about resubs that came back higher, lower or the same, thus the confusion. It's all a craps shoot IMO, you either roll that 7-11 or craps out, simple as that.

Some years ago I purchased a certain card as an SGC84. Card kinda looked pretty good to me, so at some point I cracked it and sent it in to PSA. Presto, the card comes back a PSA 8. The card was subbed under the "old" system and I recently subbed the card again (in holder) and presto again, card comes back a PSA 8.5 !!! This from an SGC84. Not only does it come back as a PSA 8.5, it is the ONLY PSA 8.5 of that card, no 9s or 10s! I had a serious YOWZAH moment when I saw that. Card cost me $31 back when, will now sell for mid teens for sure. Yes, I know, you're supposed to send in the flip...c'mon, how many do that?? Like 1 out of 50?

As for the POP report...how does cracking out effect the true numbers? Well, let's say you crack a PSA 7, now it's in raw format and gently squeezed into that card saver to be subbed. Card comes back as a PSA 7, or actually any grade...what happens to the POP report? The original PSA 7 never goes away because PSA has no clue what the card was when it was sent in. The new grade gets added to the POP report, or in this case, if it comes back a PSA 7, the card has in essence cloned itself and the POP report has gone up by one in the PSA 7 category. Either way, the first PSA 7 never gets deleted. No doubt the POP report at this point is nothing more than a WAG, totally inflated for sure. The original card never goes away...crack out 10k cards and send them in raw, the POP report still has those 10k cards in their data base...assuming no flip enclosed.

SMR is another pet peeve of mine and equally as useless. How many times have you heard or read somebody say, "the SMR for that card is x$$"? Or SMR this that or the other. It's all an illusion, a mere fiction. While you can use SMR as a guide if you wish, but there is no way on this earth that SMR is worth squat. PSA does not and cannot "scour" sales as they claim to ensure valid data. VCP is the only place I am aware of that gives you real sales data in a historical fashion, with which to make a viable decision. In the case I cited above about that SGC84 card that has now become a "screamer" for me, BEFORE the card came back as an 8.5, the SMR already had a paltry value of $250 for this card BEFORE it even existed.

What to do??? If you are in the game of collecting and expect a future profit, you have little choice but to play the PSA game to max the value of your cards. You gotta know how to play the game and realize the pitfalls and often times the expense and agonizing wait to get your stuff back from PSA.

One more thing...let's say you are looking for a certain card. The POP says there are 35 of those in a PSA 8, which is the grade you are either looking for, or can afford. You GOTTA take the time to research the card in the Registry to see how many are already "locked up" in either player, team or some other set to see how rare the card might really be that you seek. IOW, if your research shows that 22 of that particular card are tied up in the Registry, then the TRUE POP of that card is 13, not 35. Not many guys turn lose of Registry set cards.

Happy collecting...I will post more in the next few weeks about subbing and how sweet it can be.

Regards,
Al

PS Hello Steve!! If you are reading this, hope the snow wasn't too bad up in Maine.

Chance favors the prepared mind

Louis Pasteur



#2 mrmint23

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 12:16 PM

Interesting.

#3 cadets68

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Posted 02 November 2011 - 06:38 PM

Posted Image
Psa Braves/Brewer Team Sets Complete
1956 Topps Milwaukee Braves 17.39%
1957 Topps Milwaukee Braves 44.00%
1958 Topps Milwaukee Braves 15.38%
1959 Topps Milwaukee Braves 27.50%
1960 Topps Milwaukee Braves 100.00%
1961 Topps Milwaukee Braves 60.00%
1962 Topps Milwaukee Braves 71.43%
1963 Topps Milwaukee Braves 34.21%
1964 Topps Milwaukee Braves 52.94%
1965 Topps Milwaukee Braves 45.16%
1971 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1972 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1973 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1974 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1975 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00% 
1976 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1977 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1978 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1979 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1980 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 100.00%
1981 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 96.88%
1982 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 84.38%
1983 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 89.19%
1984 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 77.78%

1985 Topps Milwaukee Brewers 79.41%


#4 Dboneesq

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Posted 10 November 2011 - 05:50 AM

And???

#5 Tedw9

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 06:31 PM

Al! Glad to see you over here!

What snow we did get didn't last long, just made a mess.


I totally agree with what you wrote, which is partially why I never jumped into the PSA pool. I like the idea of knowing my card is legit and more than likely not tampered with, but that whole crack and resub game seems to be TOO easy to fall into.

And your 100% correct with your take on the pop report. Unless your card is the only 1, like yours Al, or a low pop, the pop report is not very useful like the SMR.

#6 Nascar360

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Posted 17 November 2011 - 08:22 AM

Thanks

#7 reelnorth

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Posted 17 November 2011 - 10:04 AM

I have just about had all I can take of the resub games, BS trimming reports to protect the high grade tough card pop report, and other seemingly brutal tactics used by PSA. I am seriously considering crossing my ENTIRE 1952 topps set over to SGC. Any thoughts on that?

#8 mcmlvtopps

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Posted 17 November 2011 - 07:43 PM

My brief follow-up post to my comment above about how sweet crossovers can be, etc.

I recently sold a high end set. Sales were ok, but I still came short of my initial cost. I think there are several reasons for that, but I won't belabor the point. As for my crossover comment. I bought a certain SGC84 and cracked it...card came back as a PSA 8...subbed it in the slab and it came back as a PSA 8.5. Having paid a paltry $31 for the card, it sold for $999.00. Point is that it can happen, maybe not very often, but I got very lucky. In addition, at the time it happened to be the ONLY PSA 8.5, with no 9s and no 10s graded. It was a nice thrill.

My entire set was reviewed for the half-point. Of the 206 cards, I got 15 bumps to 8.5 and a shocker, a PSA 9 from a slabbed PSA 8!! I never thought I'd see PSA bump an 8 to a 9, but they did. The bottom line here is that if you are in the market to sell and can stroke the cost, you don't want to leave any $$ on the table. Among the 8.5s, was a Yogi Berra that was a nice ROI. Actually, the 8.5s really saved the day on my sales. So, FWIW, I think you gotta play the game if you want to maximize your return whenever you decide to sell. If you are a forever collector, all this is moot.

The dilema with cracking out cards I think came primarily from the half point change at PSA. While this procedure was well under way, the half point thing really pushed it. The back story is the fact that the POP report is now and will forever be inaccurate. The major crack outs come from 6s and 7s (IMO). Far, far too many "ghost" cards exist in the PSA 6,7 and perhaps 8 areas at this ponit. I know a couple of people that are crack-outaholics. Crack, sub, sub and sub some more till they get the grade they are seeking. Yes, they have gotten the evid of trim thing and resubbed only to have the card come home in a PSA slab NQ. The biggest impact here is that it dilutes the value of the cards, simple ECON 101, supply and demand. I'd guess that anywhere from 20% or more of the cards in the POP report simply do not exist, the flips are tossed and that's the end of that. It cannot be fixed and that's a fact.

It is what it is, but I think it pays to be aware of the sandbox we're all playing in. All things are not what they seem. I'm not trying to toss a wet blanket over collecting, but facts are facts. Like the SMR, the POP report is simply invalid.

On a brighter note, Happy Collecting, and Happy Thanksgiving to all.

#9 reelnorth

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Posted 17 November 2011 - 09:17 PM

I just call bullsh&t when I see it. PSA bases everything on the POP report and its accuracy. In reality, they need to reset it by wiping it out and having people key in sets, or wipe everything off except whats in the sets. as cards are re-entered, the pop changes

Tough for a publically traded company to preach about the pop report and fairness and all the other wonderful things PSA says, and then have them force collectors to resub 4 and five and six times to get a grade to keep pops lows. It is well known in the marketplace that the graders at PSA do not eblieve there are any high grade 1952 topps mantles, pafkos or mathews remaining unholdered. They have outright said that they will not holder additonal cards, because they are either trimmed, or doctored crackouts.

I again call Bullsh&t

Read the book "The Card" by Michael O'Keeffe. It will scare the hell out of you.

#10 mcmlvtopps

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Posted 18 November 2011 - 06:53 AM

Reelnorth...

Wiping out the POP and having everybody reenter their stuff will NOT fix the problem. If that were done, the POP report would only be valid for a day or two. The plethora of raw cards from crack outs will continue to flow into the system, which, in turn, will continue to add ghost cards from the crack outs that will in essence forever self-clone as long as they are cracked out over and over.

If you crack out a PSA 7 and no matter how it comes back, a 6, another 7, an 8, whatever, the original PSA 7 still exists in the POP report. If the raw card comes back as a 6 and is recracked, now there is a PSA 6 and PSA 7 added to the POP report that do not exist and then the cycle begins again with the newly cracked card heading down the grading chute for another grading. Ponder what happens to just ONE card that gets cracked over and over again...each time the previous grade bumps the POP report up by one.

This is what happens when you have a pubilicly traded company and some suit, perhaps the CEO, COO, or CFO decides that money from submissions is more important than the integrity of the collectors. Thyat's it in a nutshell.

The POP report is forever, and I do mean F-O-R-E-V-E-R broken and can NEVER be fixed.

Pls don't ask me about SMR, I choose not to waste time on that farce. A quick note on that topic...the SGC84 I wrote about above and turned into a PSA 8.5, was actually in the SMR with a value of $275.00, BEFORE the card existed !! The SMR also shows that same card in a PSA 9 to have a value of $625.00. THERE ARE NO PSA 9s !! For proof, pls see the December SMR, page 63, 1955 Topps, #64, Gus Triandos. It now has a POP of 2, 8.5s, but when I got mine (about 4-6 weeks ago), it was a POP 1. How on this earth could they assign a value to a card that did not exist? And worse yet, assign a value to a card that does not exist, which is the PSA 9.

ok, deep breath....I'm gone.

#11 reelnorth

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Posted 18 November 2011 - 09:57 PM

Agree HOWEVER

As a publicly traded company, they are responsible for keeping key information up to date. I realize that wiping the Pop and keeping whatever is in sets and adding as cards are entered again would not solve the problem, but it would certainly start things in the right direction. PSA is very tight in controlling the populations of the higher end cards. Would it not make MORE sense to establish a real baseline for the actualy quantities of the cards in various grades? My set is about 44% done in 7's, with the odd old 6 mixed in, and I will say with absolute certainlty that there is absolutely no possible way for there to be, for example, 43 lenhardt red backs, when I have only ever seen 2 for sale in the last several months. As well, how can there really be 70 Mantle 7's, when there is nowhere near that number of Robinsons, or even Bobby Thompsons? Wouldnt it make sense to set a real baseline and drive the prices up, instead of letting the numbers balloon year after year? It makes no sense.

It would require some work on PSA's part to remove flips as they come in for crackouts that go to SGC, and to actually do the work required to straighten out the pop report.

I agree on the SMR - total bull and I must say I have overpaod for some cards before I got VCP. But VCP is also misleading, because 1 bad auction on a thinly traded card blows out the price. its a much better starting point though than the SMR.

PSA needs to take their position as a market leader more seriously, and establish, at least bi-annually, a realistic pop report and a more consistent grading approach. A 7 should be a 7, not a 7 on the third go around. If they were more consistent, the crackout saga would slowly fade away.

#12 Tedw9

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Posted 22 November 2011 - 04:11 PM

Is a realistic pop report even possible?

#13 mcmlvtopps

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Posted 22 November 2011 - 04:43 PM

Steve,

I guess you have to define "realistic". Some cards are never cracked out, some cards are constantly cracked out. This problem began well before the half-point change, and I think predominently in the 5,6,7 arena. Now that the half-point came into play, the POP report has been so far impacted as to be difficult to even give and educated guess. All you have to do is go to the POP report, pick any year, any team, or player, Topps, Donruss, whatever, and take a gander at the number of half-points within that set...THOUSANDS across the spectrum. Now, how many guys sent in the flip from the crack out? Next to nada. Thus the falacity of the POP report.

Clearly the half-point thing was a cash cow for PSA, no more, no less. I challenge ANYBODY on this or any other board to tell me the difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 8.5 at arms length. Are we now buying the slab and not the better card? Some collectors are eaten up by the Registry and getting ahead of the higher graded set. I'm not sure the psychological reasoning for this, but for sure, it's an expensive ride to move up in the sandbox I play in. Besides, there are multi-millionaires above me, and I'm light-years from their income. Perhaps one of the reasons why I sold...among others.

I think PSA has an obligation to provide the very best statistical data it can...actually, I think it may well be much more than that. They seem to tout the veracity of the SMR and POP report, but with very little effort, that argumernt can be proven invalid. I'm not a PSA basher, but it is what it is, and it ain't right. Worse yet, it cannot be fixed, and I challenge anybody to provide a viable manner with which to bring the POP report back into a legitimate condition. Can't be done.

So, ya just gotta know that when you hear or read POP this, or POP that, it is undoubtedly and inflated number. Sad, but true.

Happy Thanksgiving Steve...hope the leaf peepers didn't drive you crazy. :)

#14 Dboneesq

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Posted 25 November 2011 - 12:31 PM

But VCP is also misleading, because 1 bad auction on a thinly traded card blows out the price. its a much better starting point though than the SMR.

I thought they threw out the high and the low before they figured the "AVERAGE PRICE".

#15 1952boyntoncollector

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Posted 08 July 2014 - 04:14 PM

well there can be another pop report that only goes to cards registered to users...cause as you know..if a user tries to register a card that somone already owns  than they have to take a picture of it etc..

 

can also have a 'certified  set' meaning resubmitting all the cards with time stamps to show still own the carsd and slabs....






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